WAKE-UP CALL
By Murray Hiebert in Ulu Chepor, Perak, and Penang with S. Jayasankaran in Kuala Lumpu


WAKE-UP CALL
For 18 years, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad dominated Malaysian
politics and reaped credit for the nation's economic gains. Then came
the Anwar affair. Now disillusioned Malaysians may be ready for change.

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March 18, 1999

Jumiah Amer Isa lost her political innocence last September. Until then, the shy, 21-year-old daughter of the village chief of Ulu Chepor, in the northern state of Perak, had focused on her architecture studies. "I rarely thought about politics," Jumiah says. Then Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was fired, beaten in police custody and put on trial on charges of blocking an investigation into alleged sexual misconduct. "Now I think about politics all the time," says Jumiah, wearing a grey, loose-fitting shirt in the style popularized by the former deputy premier's 18-year-old daughter, Nurul Izzah. "Anwar is a good person and has a good attitude toward Islam," Jumiah says, sitting in the family's two-storey wooden house, surrounded by palm trees and banana groves. "Malaysians have changed. They now want to know about everything. They
don't trust the government any more."

Signs of outrage over Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's treatment of Anwar and loss of faith in his government are increasingly evident. What could be significant is the extent to which the political awakening has penetrated the rural Malay heartland, his party's power base--even to young Muslim women such as Jumiah who traditionally take little note of government affairs. Malaysia's normally subdued political landscape has been fundamentally altered: Ordinary Malaysians have been emboldened to speak out on issues and mount street protests, making some analysts wonder if authoritarianism has run its course and a new, more democratic era is nearing. "This is the time for change," says Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, who has stepped forward since his arrest to spearhead a united opposition.

"What happened to Anwar gave us a wake-up call," says 39-year-old Ghazali Ibrahim, a businessman in rural Bukit Mertajam in Penang state. "To be a developed nation doesn't mean just having the tallest building and a big airport," he says--a reference to Mahathir's pet projects, Petronas Towers and Kuala Lumpur's glitzy new airport. "You can only become a developed nation when people become developed. People now are
more critical, more analytical."

But Ghazali and Jumiah also illustrate the tentativeness of this transformation: Like many, they now follow politics more closely but have yet to translate their views into action. Even those who are acting, by forming new opposition groups and holding rallies, speak vaguely of reformasi without setting forth concrete programmes for change--beyond ousting Mahathir. Moreover, the opposition's chances of seizing power in the elections due to be held by the end of April 2000 are slim: Mahathir's ruling coalition has an impressive track record of improving Malaysians' standard of living and maintaining harmony in an ethnically diverse society.

That doesn't mean the new awakening is meaningless. "Over the long haul, prospects are good that we'll see more transparency, more accountability, a more democratic way of running the country," says political scientist Khoo Boo Teik of the Science University in Penang. Even some politicians in the ruling coalition say they will have to be more responsive to a more politicized public: "We'll have to listen," says Hilmi Yahaya, an Umno official and Penang state assemblyman.

Already, the government is listening. Mahathir's creation of a royal commission to investigate Anwar's prison beating was a dramatic sign of that. It's the first time Mahathir has set up such a commission to
investigate possible misconduct within the police. Other signs: After weeks of protest over higher road tolls, the government lowered the increases and set limits for future ones until 2030. And Mahathir has begun travelling to the grassroots and meeting diverse groups of people to get out his version of events. He plans in a few weeks to start a campaign-style tour of the entire country.

The prime minister and his new deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, face an electoral test in the state of Sabah on March 12-13 that could give an early reading of the public mood toward Mahathir's United Malays
National Organization and the National Front coalition it leads. Voters in Sabah, on the island of Borneo, are more concerned about local issues than the Anwar affair. But even so, says retired journalist Samad
Ismail, "if the National Front loses in Sabah, there will be pressure to do something." One possibility: Umno could start viewing Mahathir as a liability and seek ways to ease him out.

Only last June, Mahathir bested critics within Umno who suggested that cronyism and nepotism had contributed to Malaysia's economic recession. His leadership seemed unshakable--and so he felt confident enough to oust Anwar, his chosen successor, who had supported the critics. But what came next stunned Malaysia: Police wearing ski masks and carrying assault weapons arrested Anwar, who was charged with sodomy and corrupt efforts to cover up his alleged sexual affairs. A series of shocking revelations has kept the outrage fresh: First, police officers at Anwar's trial described using harsh interrogation techniques to change witnesses' testimony. Then, government witnesses explained how they received hefty state contracts. Former police chief Rahim Noor, who resigned in January, confessed to striking Anwar, giving
him the infamous black eye.

The police aren't alone in suffering damage to their image. Recent events have undermined popular confidence in Mahathir in a way that the recession had not. Some people also are questioning the roles of the legal system and of the media--which reported the charges against Anwar in graphic detail. Political scientist Saliha Hassan, who recently visited the northern states of Perak and Kedah, says: "People were
discussing the way our court system works, the police and the way Anwar is being treated. Every Malay I met was upset about the way the evidence against Anwar is being presented in court."

Mahathir is betting that anger will have abated before next year's deadline for elections, and that he can win political points by jump-starting the economy with increased public spending and easy credit. Certainly, many Malaysians agree with him in blaming international financiers for their economic woes. And the recession already shows signs of bottoming out, though weak consumer demand and lukewarm foreign investment could still postpone recovery. Yet even if the economy picks up, political behaviour has changed so dramatically in recent months that it's hard to envision a return to business as usual. Consider just three recent scenes:

-- Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah, tells a cheering crowd of 20,000 in Mahathir's constituency that she may run against the prime minister in the next election. She speaks from a platform set up by the Islamic opposition party, Pas, at the edge of a rice field. Most startling of all: Pas chief Fadzil Mohamad Noor declares that his party--which advocates an Islamic state and has no female legislators--would support Wan Azizah's candidacy.

-- Some 2,000 students from the University of Malaya hold their first demonstration in two decades, risking expulsion from the elite institution to oppose its decision not to renew the teaching contract of political scientist Chandra Muzaffar. Chandra is deputy president of a new opposition group, Movement for Social Justice or Adil, founded by Wan Azizah (see story on page 12).

-- In London, when Mahathir meets a group of Malaysian students, one tells Mahathir he should apologize to Anwar's family and resign--and the others applaud. Their bluntness is a shocking breach of etiquette by
Malaysian standards.

Umno members have been defecting by the thousands to other parties, especially Pas. In addition, readers are abandoning pro-government newspapers in favour of opposition tabloids and Internet news sites. Rais Yatim, a former government minister, warned in a March 7 commentary in the daily Utusan Malaysia that Umno's future is at risk if it doesn't counter the criticism appearing on Web sites.

Whether the opposition can marshal all this criticism to promote concrete political reform is an open question. "The level of discussion remains ambiguous and shallow," says Farish Noor, a political scientist
and human-rights activist. "Many of the reformers are articulating concepts like 'civil society,' but it is not clear what form of civil society they wish to establish. There is no clear-cut project of social engineering or institutional restructuring."

Others believe far-reaching changes are already under way. Khoo, the Science University scholar, believes the crisis has lowered racial barriers between the politically dominant Malays, who comprise 55% of the population, and the economically powerful Chinese, who make up about 30%. Umno has played on these divisions for years, arguing that it alone can maintain peace among the communities. Now Pas, the Democratic Action Party (a Chinese-dominated opposition party), and a raft of non-governmental organizations are cooperating to oppose Mahathir. "People are more prepared to reach out to other communities," Khoo says. "For the first time, Malaysians are ready to discuss politics and no longer assume the other side is hostile."

On the other hand, some people believe recent events are raising the profile of Islam among Malays. But a greater emphasis on their Islamic identity could reinforce communal differences. Farish points out that scores of Malay-language writers are championing Anwar, a former Islamic student leader, as "the persecuted martyr of the Islamic cause" in monographs and magazine and newspaper articles. The Islamic party, Pas,
says its membership has swelled--worrying Malaysians who oppose its goal of imposing Islamic law. "Islam is slowly taking over reformasi," a former Umno minister in Kuala Lumpur says of the reform movement. "This is of concern to liberals." He blames Umno, saying, "If Umno leaders are oblivious to corruption and cronyism and insult our intelligence, then the young will say: 'To hell with you. We're voting for the Islamic
party.'"

The next general elections will provide the best measure of how much Malaysia has changed. Critics of Mahathir are among the first to admit that voters may be angry with the prime minister but may yet vote for
his party. "People are more disenchanted with the government, but can this be translated into votes?" asks Samad, the journalist. "How many of the reformasi people are registered? Can the opposition coalition
formulate a manifesto that transcends ethnic, religious and cultural differences?"

Chandra, the Adil leader, expects the ruling coalition to urge people to vote for it "if they continue to want peace and stability." Speaking to Malays, Umno officials stress their party's role as champion of Malay rights. Under Umno's affirmative-action policy, Malays are favoured for everything from university scholarships to corporate shares and jobs. The opposition hasn't proposed ending this policy, but Hilmi,
the Penang Umno official, says: "Malays can't afford to make the mistake of allowing the opposition to gain some seats. By doing so, they'll erode the Malay power." "I agree that people have grouses, but do they have an alternative?" asks Ibrahim Ali, a deputy minister in the prime minister's department.

Speaking to Chinese voters, whose support for Mahathir may be less secure than in the past, Umno is expected to warn that toppling the National Front could endanger racial harmony (see story on page 14).

If the 14-party National Front is toppled, it would open the door to a range of unlikely alliances, worrying domestic and foreign businessmen with the prospect of political instability. Umno could team up with Pas,
which would worry non-Malays. Pas and the Democratic Action Party have been showing up at each other's rallies and some speculate that they might try to form a coalition, but as one party is religious and the
other secular, any marriage would seem doomed from the start.

The most likely scenario is that the National Front will maintain a majority in parliament, while backsliding from the 80% of seats it won in 1995. "Umno will get a severe drubbing in the Malay states" of the north and east, including Terengganu, Perlis and Kedah, predicts historian Ariffin Omar of Science University in Penang. "Mahathir has neglected the rural Malays. He is seen as a man of conglomerates and superhighways."

The opposition could push the ruling coalition's majority below two-thirds, the level needed to amend the constitution. The last time that happened was in 1969, and the prime minister was forced to step down. If Mahathir resigns, there are no guarantees that his new deputy, Abdullah, wouldn't be challenged, perhaps by Education Minister Najib Abdul Razak or former Finance Minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

No other Malaysian politician--bar the jailed Anwar--looks capable of dominating political life to the extent that the politically savvy and tireless Mahathir has done for nearly two decades. This means that his successor will have to hammer out consensus among rival factions and could get bogged down in bickering.

Eventually, a new strongman could emerge--but many Malaysians think the day of the strongman is waning. "I don't think any party can sweep the issues aside," says Sak Cheng Lum, Penang secretary for the Malaysian Chinese Association, the second-largest party in the National Front. "There's been a drop in confidence in the judiciary, in the police. These issues will continue as people get better educated. There isn't any running away from a more civil society."

“Sebagai rakyat yang patriotik, adalah menjadi tanggungjawab kita untuk membawa negara kita keluar dari kemelut sekarang. Maruah negara perlu dikembalikan. Arang yang terconteng di muka bangsa Malaysia perlu dibersihkan. Nama Malaysia perlu diharumkan kembali, iaitu negara yang mempunyai rakyat yang berani berjuang menegakkan kebenaran dan keadilan." Dr. Wan Azizah

BERITA TERKINI

“Sebagai rakyat yang patriotik, adalah menjadi tanggungjawab kita untuk membawa negara kita keluar dari kemelut sekarang. Maruah negara perlu dikembalikan. Arang yang terconteng di muka bangsa Malaysia perlu dibersihkan. Nama Malaysia perlu diharumkan kembali, iaitu negara yang mempunyai rakyat yang berani berjuang menegakkan kebenaran dan keadilan." Datuk Seri Anwar “Political parties andnon-government organisations must work together and set aside their differences in orderto free Malaysia from continuing stranglehold of crisis and oppression....Our party is prepared to sacrifice its own interests inorder to achieve the larger goal of forging a credible alternative to the Barisan Nasional  (National Front),"   " Dr. Wan Azizah KRU-keADILan Home - Links - keADILan Official Website